Football betting
Poisson score grid and Asian-handicap ladder, Premier League xG, expected points, fixtures and Polymarket 1X2.
1X2 & expected points
Price a match to fill the book.
| Home | Draw | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
Edge is (your price / market − 1). Positive = value on the back.
| Line | Home | Edge | Away | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | ||||
| Line | Over | Edge | Under | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | ||||
Home goals down the side, away across the top. Highlight is the modal score. Edge vs Polymarket when live.
| Waiting. |
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
Today’s trades
Positive Edge vs Polymarket for Premier League games today. Market price at least 5%. Sorted most Edge to least. Click a row to price the match.
| # | Kickoff | Match | Market | Selection | Your | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading. | |||||||
Upcoming Premier League
λ from each side’s recent HxG / xGA. Click a row to load the pricer.
| Kickoff | Home | Away | λ H | λ A | Poly H |
|---|
xG table and expected points
xPts is 3·P(win)+P(draw) from this engine, using each match’s HxG and AxG from football-data.co.uk.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts−xPts | xG | xGA | xGD | GF | GA |
|---|
Results with xG and closing odds
| Date | Home | Away | Score | HxG | AxG | B365 H | D | A |
|---|
Polymarket vs model
Model uses xG ratings. Edge is (your prob / Polymarket − 1). Positive = value on the back.
| Match | Poly H | Model H | Edge H | Poly D | Model D | Poly A | Model A |
|---|
Data sources
Wired feeds are pulled by this local server. The others are documented so you can plug them in (API keys, IMPECT licence, Understat scrape).
Arb
Buy every outcome of one market at best ask when the sum, after taker fee, is under $1. Only fireable clips that settle within 7 days. Intra-market, not directional. Partial fills strand inventory.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Kind | Legs | Cost | Edge | Settles | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | ||||||
Archive
Monitor highlights and live attempts are stored here. Reload keeps the history.
| Time | Kind | Market | Cost | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empty. | |||||
MarketMaking
Placeholder. Two-sided quotes on selected Polymarket books. Not wired yet. No orders from this tab.
Will sit on the C++ Dublin engine once quoting, skew and kill-switch are specified.
WalletFollow
Placeholder. Copy-trade a watched wallet’s Polymarket prints. Not wired yet. No orders from this tab.
Needs a watch list and a size cap before it can leave paper.
Flow
Placeholder. Tape and order-flow tells on live CLOB books. Not wired yet. No orders from this tab.
Will consume the same market WebSocket as Arb. Display only until a clip rule is written.
Follow the money
High-volume two-outcome books as they start. fair = recent Yes notional / (Yes+No). Small directional clip when live Yes is cheap versus that. Skip in-play sports. Quality: both sides ≥ 5% of the window and window ≥ $400.
| Market | Yes | Fair | Vol Y / N | Edge | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to scan. | |||||
Near-certainties
Buy 95–99.5¢ with ≤ 7 days left, if it still looks +EV. Skip in-play sports, tight crypto, and anything above 99.5¢. Resolution risk is not zero.
| Market | Side | Ask | Hours | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to scan. | ||||
Hop, bankroll, blockers
No private keys on this box. Do not import the trading EOA into a browser wallet. Do not POST /order from GB or US.